The folly of predicting the future of AI and augmented intelligence

Advancements in AI and augmented intelligence are leading to endless predictions for the future. Nearly everyone has a hot take on what jobs these technologies will replace—or that it’s all a bubble waiting to burst.

So which is it?

Meh. Who knows.

Humans have always been terrible at predicting the future. We overestimate certain possibilities (Y2K, crypto) while overlooking others (How quickly Amazon’s own delivery service went from being praised for helping the environment to being criticized for harming the environment).

We all know the story about the guy who got it right that one time. But we overlook the times he got it wrong, because the one time he got it right, he got it right BIG. Sometimes that’s all you need—to get it right just once.

Some people, such as CEOs, have no choice but to predict the future. Their investors demand to know what the future holds for the business. But that’s what they signed up for.

The rest of us don’t have to predict the future. So maybe we should spend less time predicting and more time preparing for as many possibilities as possible, by getting better every day in some little way.

What awaits us in our AI future?

So what is the future of AI? Will it replace us all, or go out with a whimper?

The answer is most likely: Somewhere in the middle.

Advancements in AI will change how we work. Some people will lose their jobs. But some new jobs will be created. People will need to put a personal premium on flexibility going forward. We must focus on basic skills that can adapt with the changes.

Why must we do this? Because we’re so bad at predicting the future. So we must work to be ready for whatever lies ahead. Because we sure as hell don’t know what’s coming around the corner. But we know something is coming.

And that may be the safest prediction any of us can make.